Marc Chandler


Marc Chandler

About the author:

Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Stories by the author

Remember September (for Jobs Data)


Let's admit that the monthly non-farm payroll report is among the most difficult for economists to forecast.  There are not many reliable inputs as it is the first piece of real sector data for a new month. 

Nevertheless, it is an important piece of economic data, and which, as we saw earlier in the year, a significant downside miss could freeze the Fed.  

It's an Italian Thing


Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly.  It will be held on December 4.  The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies. 

The Peso, but Probably not Voters, Moved by the Debate


The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso.  The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the debate. Snap polls immediately following the debate gave the edge to Clinton. 

Idiosyncratic Risk and Dollar Movement


The US dollar is narrowly mixed.  The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer.  The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level developments. 

What's Up in Emerging Markets


EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend.  One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria.  However, it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed firmer against the majors as well.  We still believe that risk and EM should do fine over the next few weeks, as the Fed set a two-month window of steady rates.

Global Political Developments Take Center Stage


The major central banks have placed down their markers and have moved to stage left.  There are the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead.  The focus for most investors will be on several political developments.

A Random Pattern


As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged.  If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged.